More EA
After some additional thought, I think it's a fair guess that two things must be happening for EA to reduce the price on their most anticipated game of the year to $39.95 before it's released.1) The game must not be that good, and
2) Pre-orders must be very poor.
If the game wasn't good but pre-orders were through the roof, there would be no reason to reduce the price. If the game was great but pre-orders were weak, word of mouth would generate sales as soon as the game was released, so again there would be no reason to drop the price.
I don't think it's possible for a 20% price reduction to generate 20% additional revenue beyond EA's projections, either, because they were already projecting that everyone was going to buy this game--at $49.99.
I've had deep reservations about this project from day one--or rather, deep reservations about EA's projection of the value of the franchise. How much does The Godfather resonate with the 15-25 demographic, anyway? The last movie was released in 1990--over fifteen years ago. I think the Godfather brand has far more cachet with industry analysts than it does with the critical demographic groups.
It's going to be interesting to see what the reviews are, because I think the price cut is a definite sign that it's less than a blockbuster. I hope I'm wrong, though, particularly for the 360 version (which is coming out months later).
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